CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-01-29T04:38:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-01-29T04:38ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/28848/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible as a partial halo to the NW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is an M6.8 class flare from AR 13559, best observed in SDO AIA 131. This eruption is also observed in SDO AIA 171/193/211 with subsequent field line movement, an EUV wave, and post eruptive arcades following the flare visible in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. Possible arrival/glancing blow signature of arrival of this CME at L1: enhancement in magnetic field components with an increase in B_total from 3.6 nT to over 7 nT, reaching a maximum near 8 nT. Rotation of all three magnetic field components. Solar wind speed increased from approximately 390 km/s to 440 km/s and increases in temperature and density (to ~5nT) were also observed.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-02-01T05:18Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-01-30T13:47Z (-12.8h, +12.8h)
Prediction Method: ELEvo
Prediction Method Note:
CME input parameters: Apex direction (deg): W25.0 Inverse ellipse aspect ratio: 0.7 Angular half width (in ecliptic, deg): 35 initial CME speed: 1888.0 km/s initial height: 21.5 R_Sun initial time: 2024-01-29T06:17Z drag parameter: 0.1e-7 (+/- 0.025e-7) /km ambient solar wind speed: 400 (+/- 50) km/s time step: 10 min ensemble members: 100kLead Time: 61.20 hour(s)
Difference: 39.52 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Eva Weiler (ASWO) on 2024-01-29T16:06Z
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